Model Quality Deep Dive
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Module 4: M - Model Quality
"The quality of your decisions can never exceed the quality of your mental models."
Architecture vs. Volume
Most people think M means "know more stuff." It does not. M is about the organization, connection, and accuracy of what you know. A librarian with 10,000 disorganized books has lower M than a strategist with 100 well-connected frameworks.
Jeff's wife Katura is the example. Same pharmacy school, same professors, same exams. Jeff memorized drug interactions as isolated facts. Katura understood the underlying biochemical logic. When a new drug came along, Jeff had to look it up. Katura could reason it out from first principles.
Three Exercises to Build M
Exercise 1: The Compression Card
Take the most important concept from your work this week. Write it on a 3x5 index card:
- One sentence that captures the essence
- One diagram that shows how it connects to other ideas
- Use a Sharpie (forces compression; you cannot write small)
If you cannot fit it on the card, you do not understand it well enough yet.
Exercise 2: The Feynman Test
Pick a concept you think you know well. Explain it out loud as if you were talking to a 10-year-old. No jargon. No shortcuts.
Where you stumble is where your model has gaps. Go back and fill them.
Exercise 3: The Prediction Drill
Before you read an article, attend a meeting, or review data, write down what you think will happen. Be specific. After the event, compare your prediction to reality.
The gap between prediction and reality IS the measure of your model quality. Track these gaps over time. Watch them shrink.